The odds a condom will break
According to the NIH, the overall frequency of condom breakage is about 1.9% with a slightly higher 2.7% for the age group 20-39.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8070546
Other sources including Planned Parenthood more or less agree with these numbers, but with the caveat concerning the prevention of pregnancy…
If you use condoms perfectly every single time you have sex, they’re 98% effective at preventing pregnancy. But people aren’t perfect, so in real life condoms are about 85% effective — that means about 15 out of 100 people who use condoms as their only birth control method will get pregnant each year.
It’s hard to tell if Planned Parenthood assumes a one to one relationship between breakage and getting pregnant or what “real life” means to them. Nonetheless it’s quite clear that condoms have good odds, but nowhere near perfect.
Best five-card poker hand out of seven cards
Let’s examine the odds by comparison to the typical game of poker where the best five cards of seven make a play. Below is a list of the various possible hands along with probability numbers.
| Hand | Frequency | Individual | Cumulative | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prob. | Odds | Prob. | Odds | ||
| Royal flush | 4,324 | 0.0032% | 31,249 : 1 | 0.0032% | 31,249 : 1 |
| Straight flush (excl. royal flush) | 37,260 | 0.0279% | 3,583 : 1 | 0.0311% | 3,214 : 1 |
| Four of a kind | 224,848 | 0.168% | 594 : 1 | 0.199% | 502 : 1 |
| Full house | 3,473,184 | 2.60% | 37.5 : 1 | 2.80% | 34.7 : 1 |
| Flush | 4,047,644 | 3.03% | 32.0 : 1 | 5.82% | 16.2 : 1 |
| Straight | 6,180,020 | 4.62% | 20.6 : 1 | 10.4% | 8.6 : 1 |
| Three of a kind | 6,461,620 | 4.83% | 19.7 : 1 | 15.3% | 5.5 : 1 |
| Two pair | 31,433,400 | 23.5% | 3.26 : 1 | 38.8% | 1.58 : 1 |
| One pair | 58,627,800 | 43.8% | 1.28 : 1 | 82.6% | 1 : 4.75 |
| No pair | 23,294,460 | 17.4% | 4.75 : 1 | 100% | 0 : 1 |
Having sex with a properly utilized condom offers the same odds of breakage as drawing a full house from seven cards shown in red. I’ve played plenty of poker and seen a full house often enough to question condom effectiveness as a good control measure for men.
What is condom failure?
IMO it’s quite simply when, for whatever reason, the condom breaks or slips off during intercourse resulting in semen entering the vagina. A broken condom also transfers any STDs from man to woman and perhaps the reverse. A condom slipping off opens wide the STD doorway in both directions.
Playing pecker poker
Are you willing to play the odds of using a condom correctly yielding 98% effectiveness for any one sexual encounter? Let’s consider what happens to the probabilities for multiple encounters with probability mathematics. Let’s use good old Latex (LOL Latex… get it?) to generate equations starting with the formula for calculating probability of outcome of a specific “chance” over multiple instances.
\(\Large Q_{f} = (1-P_{s}^{N_e}) = (1-.98^{N_e})\)
Where…
- \(\large Q_{f}\)= Chance of one condom failure over the length of a relationship.
- \(\large P_{s}\) = Chance of condom success for a single encounter – 98% best case for the moment.
- \(\large N_{e}\) = The number of sexual encounters during the relationship
Let’s run some numbers and see what we learn.
- For one sexual encounter we have Pf = (1 – 0.98^1) = 2%.
- For two sexual encounters we have Pf = (1 – 0.98^2) = 3.96%
- For three, Pf = (1 – 0.98^3) = 5.88%
- For five, Pf = (1 – 0.98^5) = 9.61%
- For ten, Pf = (1 – 0.98^10) = 18.3%
- For 25, Pf = (1 – 0.98^25) = 39.7%
- For 50, Pf = (1 – 0.98^50) = 63.6%
- For 100, Pf = (1 – 0.98^100) = 86.7%
The 98% effectiveness begins to look bleak over the long ball, oops I mean long haul… and this is if you use a condom properly each time. Let’s assume you have sex with a girl ten times during a relationship with perfect condom application. The failure rate is about 18 percent or about 1 to 4 odds. I don’t think I need to run the pessimistic 85% number from Planned Parenthood do I? Of course I do. Let’s graph the 98% case along with the pessimistic Planned Parenthood 85% figure.
The 85% case is very dismal, but the 98% isn’t really all that comforting either. Yes it’s true you need to have careful condom sex about 8 times to reach the same broken condom risk as the first lackadaisical condom use. If you are lucky and have a hot and heavy sexual relationship, the trends only get worse. Let’s have a look at fifty sexual liaisons.
Hmmm with careful condom use you reach 50% chance of one breaking by having sex 34 times. The less careful condom use? Well let’s just say that’s a disaster almost from the get go. Let’s take this out to 100 times.
Using condoms with great care should be an obvious goal by now. Still, even with great care, the 98% case sails straight into mixing bodily fluids at least once with high probability. Math’s a bitch isn’t it? If STDs weren’t part of the problem here, about the only hope is to avoid intercourse altogether. Perhaps keeping things oral is a birth control solution. Still doesn’t solve STDs though.
The final big picture
Let’s add in NIH’s 20-39 age group and change from points to lines to make one last pretty picture.
If you date a girl for a year and have sex every other week, you are hovering near a coin flip chance of condom breakage.
The Zero Hero
Let’s be honest. The only point where chances of getting an STD or pregnant are gone is when you don’t have sex. Abstinence works. Maybe not what you want to hear, but pretending this isn’t the truth does no one any good. While we are being honest, let’s just understand those that refuse to understand abstinence is the only 100% safe activity either have a nefarious agenda, are just plain stupid or both.
Conclusion
Condoms. Better than nothing at all, but not the wonder willy wrapper some think. Plus let’s not forget condoms do little to protect against skin-to-skin contact diseases including genital herpes, human papillomavirus [HPV] infection, syphilis, and chancroid.
Click to see where this leave us!!!
I was dumb in college and dodged a bullet or two. My appreciation for virgins soared. I found one, married her and am done with risking my health for a “good time.”